Response to Dire Puppy
Posted by Helen on September 05, 1998 at 23:42:17:
I have reproduced the article here so that I can respond to it
in context. First of all, thank you for the link to it.
Before I begin, I want to mention that the dating and the article
are done with the presupposition of both long ages and not only uniformitarianism but
gradualism. Understanding that I do not accept these presuppositions and will be looking
at the evidence presented from the standpoint of recent creation and catastrophic
interruptions in history, I will approach the article from a "devil's advocate"
point of view as far as evolutionists are concerned. The quoted article is in italics.
Antarctica is the coldest, windiest, highest and driest
continent on Earth. That's right - the driest ! Antarctica is a desert. The annual
precipitation of snow, averaged across the continent, is about 30 centimetres, which is
equivalent to about 10 centimetres of water. In some locations as little as 2 centimetres
(water equivalent) is recorded.
For those confused by metrics, 10cm is a little less than
4 inches. 2cm is, very roughly, about 1 1/2 inches
Because of the low temperatures, however, there is little
or no melt. Thus the snow has accumulated year after year for thousands of years and, with
time, is compressed to ice to form the Antarctic ice sheet.
For future reference, please note here that gradualism is
presumed.
Approximately 98 per cent of the Antarctic continent is
covered by the ice sheet which is on average about 2,500 metres thick and, at it's deepest
location, 4,700 metres thick. It is due to this thick ice mass that Antarctica is, on
average, the highest continent. Since the ice sheet is formed by the accumulation of snow
year after year, by drilling from the surface down through the ice sheet, we drill our way
back in time. Ice drills are designed to collect a core as they cut through the ice, so
samples are collected that are made up of ice deposited (in the form of snow) many
thousands of years ago.
As the snow is deposited on top of the ice sheet each year, it
traps different chemicals and impurities which are dissolved in the ice. The ice and
impurities hold information about the Earth's environment and climate at the time of
deposition. A variety of different analyses techniques are used to extract that
information.
Climate Change
One measurement, the oxygen isotope ratio or delta value,
measured using a mass spectrometer on melted samples of the ice, gives us an indication of
the temperature at the time the ice was deposited as snow. Measuring the delta value at
many depths through the ice core is equivalent to measuring the air temperature at many
times in the past. Thus, a climatic history is developed. Climatic temperature against
time from delta measurements taken on the ice core drilled at the Russian station, Vostok,
in central Antarctica (Figure 2). Available data from this ice core so far extends back
about 160,000 years. However, drilling of the core still continues, and it is expected
that, when drilling is completed in a few years time, an age of 500,000 years will have
been reached. Starting on the right-hand side of the graph at about 140,000 years ago, the
climate was about 6°C colder than it is today. This was an ice age period. Then at about
130,000 years ago, there was a quite rapid warming period until about 125,000 years ago,
when the climate was, perhaps, 1°C or 2°C warmer than today. These short warmer periods
are called inter-glacials. We are in an inter-glacial now. From 120,000 to about 20,000
years ago, there was a long period of cooling temperatures, but with some ups and downs of
a degree or two. This was the Wisconsin Period, known as the last Great Ice Age. From
about 18,000 or 19,000 years ago to about 15,000 years ago, the climate went through
another warming period to the next inter-glacial, - the one we are now in.
What is being seen here is two possible ice ages, the
first one being somewhat less and perhaps shorter than the second. Removing the time
element, which is gradualistic and uniformitarian, what might just as easily be seen is
the ice age that is postulated as arising out of the Flood catastrophe, with a warmer
period for several hundred years, and then the massive volcanic activity thought to be
present at the time of Peleg, which would have resulted in a much more severe ice age.
During the formation of both ice ages, the storms would have had to be constant, one on
top of another with very little time in between, and very fierce. This would also account
for what is seen in the ice cores.
Figure 2 also includes a graph of the concentration of dust in
the ice core. High concentrations of dust occur at the same times as the colder periods
shown on the temperature graph. There are several possible reasons for this: the air is
drier during colder periods, thus, there may have been more deserts; the ice sheets were
more extensive and sea levels lower, thus there would have been more exposed, dry land;
there may also have been more storms, or at least more violent storms. All of these
factors would increase the amount of dust lifted into the atmosphere to then be blown over
Antarctica and deposited with the snow on the surface of the ice sheet.
Colder periods are normally times of less precipitation, as cold
air is dry. The writer here is postulating more deserts by presuming a worldwide cold and
dry climate. I think he may be presuming too much. A warmer world in the tropic and
temperate zones, particularly where the oceans are concerned (a few degrees warmer
temperature in the oceans would vastly increase the rate of evaporation), would provide
the precipitation for the massive snowfalls required for the laying down of not only the
polar caps but for the advent of the ice age(s) as well. The winds and the storms that
would result from the temporary increasing disparity betwen arctic/antarctic and tropical
temperatures would drive large amounts of dust toward the poles in windstorms. One thing I
noticed here is that the author also mentions more land being exposed during the ice
age(s), and when I mentioned that, I was ridiculed on this forum. One thing that is not
mentioned in this article is the composition of the dust. Does it show high or low amounts
of volcanic material? And at which levels? I would be curious to know this.
Figure 2. Dust concentration, climatic air temperature (as
inferred from del measurements), and concentration of carbon dioxide and methane from
measurements of trapped air are plotted against time before present. (After Lorius et al.,
1993 and Petit et al., 1990).
Please go to the link provided in the post above this for the
charts.
Greenhouse Gases
The snow near the surface of the ice sheet is like a sponge
with channels of air between the snow grains. As more and more snow is accumulated on top,
the underlying snow is compressed into ice and the air forms bubbles in the ice. Ice cores
therefore can be analysed not just for the chemical and physical properties of the ice,
but also for the properties of the air trapped in the ice. These bubbles are actual
samples of the atmosphere up to thousands of years ago. So, analysis of them can tell us
much about the atmosphere in the past.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane measured in the air
bubbles trapped in the ice are shown in Figure 2 along with temperature and dust graphs.
Carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases and the similarity between the graphs for
their concentrations and the temperature change graph indicates that the greenhouse effect
is real and that it has been around for many thousands of years.
That is only if you are presuming many thousands of years.
I studied that chart for some time. What I saw corresponds to the idea that a post flood
ice age would have less dust due to winds because everything was wet. But then you have
that period in between ice ages where you see a rise in carbon dioxide as the plant life
on earth was re-established and thrived. This corresponds with the rapid rise in
temperature which melted the ice. Now, keep in mind that we are ONLY talking about the one
pole here -- the south one. These measurements do NOT tell us what the rest of the world
was like at the time. As we move to the left in graph two, or toward the present, there is
a sudden rise in the dust factor. This would easily result from volcanism and the changes
in relative air temperatures, and even changes in relative areas of sea temperatures,
around the world. The would cause the massive winds that seek to equalize the
temperatures. More dust at a time of increasing cold and the rapid onset of a much worse
ice age. Then, to the far left of the graph, a rapid rise in temperature again as the dust
settles down and the temperatures and thus the pressures have also settled. The earth
warms again and the ices melt, leaving what is left on the poles.
You see, if one does not presume long ages, many rapid storms in
a time of fluctuating temperatures and world upheaval can account for what we see in that
graph.
Has there been a significant increase in the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution?
The answer is yes, as can be seen from Figure 3 which shows the
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, measured in the bubbles from an
Antarctic ice core from Law Dome near Australia's Casey Station. The concentration of
carbon dioxide has increased from about 280 parts per million to 350 parts per million,
which is a rise of 25 per cent since the middle of last century. Nitrous oxide and other
greenhouse gases also show similar trends from analysis of the ice-core bubbles. The Law
Dome ice core is at a location where the snow accumulation is much higher than at Vostok.
Thus, the time scale for the Law Dome core is expanded and it can provide us with more
detailed information about recent climate changes, though it can not go back in time as
far as the deeper Vostok ice core.
[snip the caption for figure 3]
Ice Core Dating
By sampling at very fine intervals down the ice core, and
provided that each annual layer of snow is thick enough, several samples from each year
may be measured for the different chemical properties. It has already been seen that the
delta value is related to air temperature when the snow was deposited. Because it is
warmer in summer and cooler in winter, and provided the snow layers are not too disturbed
by wind, the delta value can show annual cycles. Thus, these values can be used to date
the ice core. Hydrogen peroxide is created in the atmosphere by a chemical reaction that
requires ultraviolet light. There is a lot less ultraviolet light in the winter than in
the summer in Antarctica. Thus, measurements of hydrogen peroxide dissolved in the ice
also provide a good annual cycle indicator.
Some observations here: first of all the dust would have
had to be produced by winds bringing it in. Therefore the pattern is upset from the
outset. Secondly, it is presumed that the variations in temperatures are correlative to
summer and winter variations. However this does not necessarily have to be the case.
Uniformitarian gradualism is a presumption which rests on a shaky foundation here simply
because of the presence of the varying amount of dust if nothing else! The only thing
indicating "annual" cycles in the ice core is the presumption of the person
interpreting the data.
In order to date the ice cores accurately, the annual
layers need to be thick enough to obtain about ten measurement samples from each year. The
thickness of the annual layers depends on how much snow falls each year.
Or each storm......
Thus, to obtain an ice core from which accurate, detailed
dating can be derived, we need to find an Antarctic site where the snow accumulation is
relatively high.
Which could also mean it got blown there in snowdrifts during
windstorms.
This would usually mean we need to find a low elevation
site, but it must also be a site where there is no melt. If the snow was to melt at any
time during the year, some measurements such as those involving trapped gases would be
spoiled. In addition, the annual layers would be destroyed by the melt water which would,
effectively, wash the evidence away.
And the only way they have of estimating melt rate
is to take what we have today and presume it has been that way for a very long time. This
kind of gradualism presumes no catastrophes, no bolide hits, nothing to disturb the quiet
ebb an flow of the seasons. I do not think this is a reasonable presumption when the rest
of the world is looked at and the evidence for catastrophes of various kinds is so clear.
Such locations (high snow accumulation, yet low
summer temperatures) are not easy to find. One such location, however, is near the summit
of Law Dome, approximately 120 kilometres from Casey Station, where an ice core has been
drilled 1,200 metres through the ice sheet to the underlying bedrock. Accurate dating for
this core has been obtained back to 8,000 years ago using annual cycles obtained by
analysis of delta value and hydrogen peroxide. A section of the graph of delta value and
hydrogen peroxide is shown in Figure 4, along with the year. The ice core depth for this
section is 139 to 128 metres, corresponding to the dates 1807 to 1826 AD.
Figure 4. Detailed analysis of section of the DSS ice core
(summit of Law Dome, Antarctica) showing del value, Peroxide concentration, Sulphate
concentration and Conductivity values. Section of ice core is from 128 to 139 metres
depth, covering the time period 1808 to 1826, and including evidence of two volcanic
eruptions.
I am curious to know the sulfate measurements for core depths
that are dated thousands of years ago.....
Volcanic Horizons
Measurements of electrical conductivity are also made on the
ice cores - these are closely linked to the acidity of the ice. Conductivity shows an
annual cycle and is higher in the summer snow than the winter snow. This is probably
because of chemical reactions in the atmosphere involving dimethyl sulphide (a chemical
produced in greater quantities during the summer months by marine algae and
phytoplankton), which result in production of low concentrations of sulphuric acid which
is then distributed over the ice sheet. Sulphuric acid is often blasted into the
atmosphere by volcanic eruptions. Therefore, the conductivity in the ice cores sometimes
shows a peak at the depth corresponding to the time shortly after a volcanic eruption.
I am not criticizing the hesitancy in attributing the effect
to a particular cause in the first sentences of this paragraph. I applaud it. But I do
think it should be noted.
A more reliable method of detecting volcanic eruptions from
the ice cores however, is to measure sulphate directly. Sulphate also exists in sea salt
which is deposited on the ice sheet in small quantities from wind-blown sea spray. Thus,
to examine the sulphate derived from volcanoes, the sea-salt sulphate needs first to be
accounted for. This can be easily done by measuring the quantities of other chemicals of
marine origin.
On Figure 4, along with the accurate dating of the ice core
from delta value and hydrogen peroxide, plots of conductivity and non-sea-salt Sulphate
are also included. The conductivity graph does indicate annual cycles, but more
interesting are the large peaks in this and in the sulphate graphs, which occur at about
1810 and between about 1816 and 1818 AD. The 1816-18 peak is due to the eruption in 1815
of Tambora, a volcano in Indonesia. The peak in about 1810 certainly seems to be due to
another volcanic eruption, but none is known to have occurred around then. Volcanic
eruptions are useful to glaciologists as a check on the other ice core dating techniques.
On the other hand, there are previously unknown volcanic eruptions have been discovered
from the evidence from the ice cores.
For me, this article ended much too soon. If you
know of more data and other articles online, please let me know. I'll do some checking
myself. Thank you for finding this one, Dire Puppy.
Very seriously, my main purpose in going through this paper this
way is to show how the presuppositions determined the conclusions. If I presuppose a
recent creation, I can look at the same data and everything fits quite nicely for me, too.
In short, and this is a note for the Christians here -- God has left us enough evidence to
confirm our faith but not to prove it scientifically. Data can be seen different ways, and
quite validly so, depending on the presuppositions involved. One cannot look to the
evidence to somehow prove that one's faith is true. If that were the case, faith would not
be faith, but simply a logical conclusion. God asks us for faith in concordance with our
reason, but not dependent upon it.
Response to Helen
Posted by B on September 07, 1998 at 10:21:40:
In reference to Figure 2, Helen wrote:
I studied that chart for some time. What I saw corresponds
to the idea that a post flood ice age would have less dust due to winds because eveything
was wet.
**I'd be surprised by any dust at all if that were my
model.
Helen further wrote:
But then you have that period in between ice ages where you
see a rise in carbon dioxide as the plant life on earth was re-established and thrived.
This corresponds with the rapid rise in temperature which melted the ice.
**Since plants fix carbon dioxide, how can a rise in
carbon dioxide be equated to the spread of plant life? I think you need to take a biology
class. I also think you are trying too hard to make the data fit an invalid worldview.
**One indicator of annual cycles that you failed to criticize
was the accumulation of hydrogen peroxide. Since the formation of hydrogen peroxide is
tied to UV levels, as long as the Earth has been tilted there would have been annual
variations of UV levels near the South Pole. How can a catastrophic flood model and the
one storm per layer you have to invoke account for what can be explained very simply as
seasonal variations in hydrogen peroxide? You might also mention how moutain formation due
to rapid plate movement factors into this as well.
Response to B
Posted by Helen on September 07, 1998 at
10:59:28:
1. Living near the flood prone Calif. central valley, I
can testify that the surface will dry quickly and produce some dust during winds, even
though the soil a little further down is still wet. The more sandy the soil the more the
winds can raise in a shorter time after the rains.
2. Plants don't grow well without the CO2. Therefore I repeat
that a rise in plant life and a rise in CO2 levels should be contemporaneous.
3. Regarding your other points, I was staying with what the
article presented. Earth axis tilt, mountain building etc. were not mentioned in the
article and therefore not in my response. The purpose of my response was to present the
idea that data can be interpreted different ways by different people.
However, if you had read what I wrote, you would have seen
that I never postulated only one storm, nor did I attribute everything to Noah's flood.
And just a thought regarding UV levels and the H2O2 levels -- the amount of UV reaching
earth is hugely dependent upon a number of variables, including the force of the magnetic
field, the size of the ozone hole in the Antarctic, how much the air might be clogged with
volcanic debris, etc. What we see is mostly seasonal or postulated as epochal, but that
does not mean we are right in that conclusion regarding how things used to be or were at
one time.